Bitcoin price has traded near $81,300 today as buyers weighed on improving on-chain signals, cautious derivatives positioning, and renewed geopolitical developments tied to Russia, Ukraine, and Iran. At press time, the bulls were still in control trading at $81,357, up about 0.7% to 1% over 24 hours. According to Coincodex, in the last 24 hours, it has fluctuated between roughly $80,552 and $81,489, keeping price action inside a narrow band above the closely watched $80,000 level. The move came as Polymarket odds for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by the end of 2026 showed a probability above 99%, up 49%. Concurrently, Russian President Vladimir Putin also said he believed the war was “coming to an end” while broader negotiations remained unresolved. Source: Polymarket Bitcoin traders are watching whether the asset can remain above the $80,000 to $81,000 zone. Analysts have described this range as a short-term decision area after Bitcoin failed to hold a recent move toward $83,000. Bitcoin Price Holds Above Key Support Zone Technical analysts continue to focus on the low-$80,000 area. A sustained hold above this range could support another attempt toward higher resistance, while a clean loss may trigger a retest of support below $80,000. Some traders are watching the bull market support band, made up of two moving averages sitting just below $80,000. That zone has acted as a reversal area during recent pullbacks. Cryptic Trades said a short-term pullback toward the support band remains possible after Bitcoin rejected near higher-timeframe resistance. The analyst said the bullish case remains valid as long as Bitcoin holds above that support and the broader $75,000 region, which aligns with the April bottoming structure. Source: X Subsequently, Bitcoin’s recent move above the support band was not yet a clean breakout. Analysts note the price would need to clear the low-$80,000 area and hold there for one to two weeks to confirm stronger momentum. On-Chain Data Shows Capital Returning On-chain data also points to improving capital flows. Analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin’s realized cap has moved back into positive monthly growth at about 0.25%, after falling 2.6% in February. The realised cap tracks the value of coins based on their last movement price. It is often used to assess whether capital is entering or leaving the Bitcoin market. During the earlier correction, investors who bought at higher prices realized losses, pushing the realized cap lower. Darkfost said the recent recovery suggests capital is beginning to return, though the signal is still early. Source: X Other market data shows mixed trader positioning. Binance top traders remain bearish overall, according to analyst CW, but the long-position ratio has been rising quickly. CW also pointed to a possible golden cross between Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio and its 200-day EMA, describing it as a bullish trend-reversal signal. Geopolitical Shifts Add Macro Pressure to Bitcoin Bitcoin’s move above $81,000 is unfolding as markets monitor two major geopolitical tracks. The first is the Russia-Ukraine war, where Putin’s latest comments have added attention to ceasefire odds and possible risk-on flows. Putin said he believes the war may be nearing an end, but broader negotiations remain unresolved. Russia and Ukraine continue to report attacks, and disputes remain over territory, NATO membership and security guarantees. The second track is Iran. Tehran has formally submitted its final response to the U.S. proposal through Pakistan, according to IRNA. The negotiations are focused on ending the war, while Iran has said nuclear issues are not part of the current talks. Iran has maintained that nuclear matters would need a separate agreement after the conflict ends. President Masoud Pezeshkian, however, has said dialogue does not mean surrender or retreat, adding that Iran would defend national interests while engaging in talks. President Donald Trump has insisted the war will not end without a nuclear deal, according to the provided reports. He also warned Iran against refusing the current proposal, raising market attention around the risk of renewed escalation. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major concern for traders because of its role in global energy flows. Any fresh disruption could raise oil prices, keep inflation concerns active and pressure risk assets. For Bitcoin, the geopolitical backdrop is mixed. A clearer path toward peace in Ukraine could support demand for risk assets, while tension around Iran and Hormuz could keep markets defensive.
